According to the analyst, the Bengaluru office market is projected to experience an improvement in office rents over the next year, while rental prices are expected to stay steady in Mumbai and the National Capital Area.

In the year 2021, given the slow movement through segments like the commercial & residential property market in most of 2020, the outlook for India’s real estate sector remains robust, said property consultancy Knight Frank India.

According to the analyst, the Bengaluru office market is projected to experience an improvement in office rents over the next year, while rental prices are expected to stay steady in Mumbai and the National Capital Area. These developments suggest that overall demand for office space will stay high throughout the New Year, amid a gloomy stretch between April and June 2020.

For India’s major office markets, the strong developments are the product of the encouragement earned in the second half of the year which saw the demand for office space return, albeit still short of the pre-COVID times.

In particular, Bengaluru has the advantage of current low vacancies that will cause most of the upcoming supply to be absorbed. Compared to global cities, the city also has the benefit of comparatively cheaper rents and a broad talent pool that can aid in a faster recovery of this industry as global economies shift towards normalcy. Asia-Pacific prime office rents are projected to decrease by between-3% to 0% in 2021, according to the study.

 

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The pandemic that resulted in low activity in Q2 2020 (April-June) dominated the year 2020 and segments across the Indian real estate market remained subdued. We saw momentum restart in Q3 2020, however with constructive steps being taken by the government and the RBI. During this time, the beleaguered residential sectors were granted a new lease of life and demand saw an incredible surge. In the industry, this has created a sense of hope,’ said Shishir Baijal, CMD, Knight Frank India.

He claims that the workplace industry still hopes to see a resurgence in economic operations opening up worldwide with news of the COVID mass vaccine just a month out.

In 2021, Knight Frank expects Asia-Pacific prime office rents to decrease from -3% to 0%. In comparison, the office market in Bengaluru saw an increase in prime rents in 2021, while office rentals in Mumbai and NCR stayed steady over the same period.

Given their more resilient lease profiles and low-interest-rate setting, the prime grade office asset prices are projected to remain reasonably stable despite the rental decline.

In Indian cities, including Mumbai, NCR, and Bengaluru, prices for prime residential markets are projected to stay steady in 2021. The re-opening of boundaries, though, would also bring back high-net-worth foreign purchasers who have been increasingly absent this year.

Warehousing demand remained surprisingly robust this year only changing by 11% year-on-year, compared to the 44% CAGR registered from FY17 to FY20. Despite the current pandemic, due to growing e-commerce demand, which is projected to rise from $70 billion in FY19 to an approximate $160 billion by 2022, the Indian warehousing market is expected to remain comparatively less affected.

India’s online retail growth is forecast at 13 percent year-on-year in 2020, with a rise in demand from e-commerce. The demand for industrial leases for warehousing in Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru remained constant in October 2020 and is projected to remain unchanged for the year 2021.

The commercial yields for Mumbai, NCR, and Bengaluru in the office and warehousing segment are projected to stay steady in 2021 with respect to the Asia-Pacific capital market forecast. The industrial investment share of commercial transaction volumes in the APAC area rose by 50% in 2020 and is projected to continue to do well in 2021 as investors continue to hop on the rise of e-commerce.

 

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