Will the RBI raise the repo rate in April 2023?
RBI Repo Rate : Given that inflation remained much higher than its tolerance level in February 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may decide to raise its benchmark lending rate yet another time.
The RBI MPC will meet again to discuss monetary policy on April 6, 2023.
Retail inflation in February was 6.44%, a modest decrease from January’s 6.52%. According to official figures issued on March 13, 2023. This suggests that costs for a range of products and services remained high in the majority of categories. Also, it indicates that for nine months of the current fiscal year. The CPI-based inflation rate has exceeded the RBI’s medium-term target of 6%.
RBI Repo Rate
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“We do anticipate another 25-basis-point raise at the forthcoming meeting in April, but we anticipate that the monetary policy committee will be split on the best course of action moving forward because supply shocks cannot be managed only by monetary policy. At an online discussion on growth resilience and sticky inflation on March 13, 2023, Radhika Rao, executive director and senior economist at DBS Group Research, stated that we must see support from the government in the form of administrative measures as well as some budgetary support.
In a poll conducted by Reuters between February 14 and 21, over two-thirds of participants predicted that the RBI will increase interest rates to a seven-year high of 6.75% in April and then maintain that rate for the remainder of 2023.
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The repo rate, at which India’s apex bank loans money to Indian financial institutions, has grown by 250 basis points since May 2022. (bps). One percentage point is one hundred basis points. The repo rate would increase by 25 basis points, or 0.75%, to 6.75% from its current level of 6.50%.
Notwithstanding its concerns over inflation. The RBI is still expect to decide to put rates on hold at its April meeting. According to international brokerage company Nomura. The agency’s forecast is based on a favourable forward inflation profile, lagging monetary policy effects, deteriorating economic projections, and a poorer prognosis for domestic demand in FY24.
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“We also think a rate-cutting cycle is likely this year because both GDP and inflation surprised lower. We continue to believe that commencing in October 2023, rate reductions of 75 basis points will be made cumulatively.
According to business, the banking regulator needs to press the pause button in order to encourage growth
“We think it is time to disconnect from it after the concerted action. That we saw on interest rates throughout the world via the epidemic. The rate of inflation is declining. So, in order to give a very clear message that it is now our turn to expand. We hope the RBI would decide to hold off on rate increases, said Sanjiv Bajaj, president of the CII, in an interview with Business Standard.
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