Banks are also concerned that if developers are unable to liquidate their stocks, this could result in defaults and add $140 billion in bad loans.

According to half-dozen industry insiders, India’s real estate market in Navi Mumbai is likely to see a major price correction for the first time in a decade as the coronavirus pandemic stalls enterprises across the country.

img: The real estate prices of India are likely to decline sharply

“Property prices can fall by 10-20 percent across geographies, while land prices may see an even higher 30 percent reduction,” said Pankaj Kapoor, chief executive of the real estate consulting company Liases Foras, adding that such a correction has not occurred since the global financial crisis. Despite lending and shadow banking crises, rates in most markets have since remained steady.

Owing to a liquidity crunch at shadow banks-which are major lenders to both developers and property buyers-things have taken a turn for worse in the last year, pushing businesses to offer discounts.

Purchasers should now expect even steeper cuts. “It’s the market of a complete buyer. So if someone really wants to do the deal they have to lower prices,” said Ram Raheja of S Raheja Realty in Mumbai.

The situation is now so serious that real estate inventory across India is worth four to five years-an an all-time high. 1 BHK Flats In Navi Mumbai according to a January study by PropTiger, an online real-estate platform, the country’s nine major residential markets have unsold units worth around 6 trillion rupees ($80 billion).

Banks are also worried that if developers are unable to liquidate their assets, this could result in defaults and add to a $140 billion pile of bad lending. While the government has come up with measures to overcome the stress on the real estate market in the last few years, there are still many projects stuck, missing funds or buyers.

The situation looks set to worsen as cases of coronavirus spread across India despite a three-week lockdown. The disease has infected almost 2,000 people so far and has killed more than 50.

“Most developers’ earnings have already taken a beating, so there’s no profit left in the business as well. Everyone’s just trying to survive by managing their cash flows,” said Ashok Mohanani, vice president of Maharashtra’s real estate industry body NAREDCO.

The effect on residential and commercial property will be felt, Mohanani said, adding, “The problem is about the survival of the fittest.”

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